Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FIL prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-09-21 2.046653 2.168262 2.296180 2.441255 2.601827 2.774811 2.976201
2025-09-28 1.841013 2.004863 2.185290 2.400396 2.652135 2.940327 3.299540
2025-10-05 1.755022 1.948910 2.169576 2.442619 2.776209 3.177200 3.706538
2025-10-12 1.688797 1.904612 2.156818 2.478577 2.886258 3.397663 4.108957
2025-10-19 1.633626 1.866474 2.144759 2.509312 2.986372 3.608580 4.517893
2025-10-26 1.569559 1.811833 2.106625 2.501209 3.031608 3.746732 4.838411
2025-11-02 1.512087 1.761084 2.068820 2.488639 3.066727 3.870298 5.148715
2025-11-09 1.450486 1.701415 2.015462 2.450588 3.061844 3.933705 5.371403
2025-11-16 1.394741 1.646284 1.964607 2.411799 3.051438 3.985646 5.579044
2025-11-23 1.359096 1.615175 1.943198 2.411123 3.094097 4.118931 5.937396
2025-11-30 1.334058 1.596493 1.936877 2.430215 3.165800 4.302105 6.408485
2025-12-07 1.291318 1.552596 1.894347 2.395068 3.152736 4.347282 6.632559
2025-12-14 1.247564 1.506625 1.848190 2.353838 3.129890 4.378040 6.842202
2025-12-21 1.207383 1.464143 1.805221 2.315116 3.108366 4.409039 7.058150
2025-12-28 1.196263 1.460365 1.815481 2.354924 3.213181 4.666938 7.792223
2026-01-04 1.183944 1.454275 1.821894 2.388800 3.310275 4.921423 8.579959
2026-01-11 1.170825 1.446446 1.825238 2.417740 3.400797 5.173852 9.430565
2026-01-18 1.147538 1.423580 1.805872 2.410112 3.428024 5.307539 10.020543
2026-01-25 1.124341 1.400078 1.784627 2.398276 3.446733 5.425898 10.602667
2026-02-01 1.095521 1.367798 1.749386 2.362434 3.420432 5.449656 10.925420
2026-02-08 1.067892 1.336500 1.714629 2.325874 3.390544 5.462986 11.223190
2026-02-15 1.051475 1.320758 1.702422 2.325237 3.425645 5.617808 12.007246
2026-02-22 1.040838 1.312960 1.701728 2.343234 3.496077 5.857995 13.165690